Backward, forward and stepwise automated subset selection algorithms: Frequency of obtaining authentic and noise variables

Abstract

The use of automated subset search algorithms is reviewed and issues concerning model selection and selection criteria are discussed. In addition, a Monte Carlo study is reported which presents data regarding the frequency with which authentic and noise variables are selected by automated subset algorithms. In particular, the effects of the correlation between predictor variables, the number of candidate predictor variables, the size of the sample, and the level of significance for entry and deletion of variables were studied for three automated subset algorithms: BACKWARD ELIMINATION, FORWARD SELECTION, and STEPWISE. Results indicated that: (1) the degree of correlation between the predictor variables affected the frequency with which authentic predictor variables found their way into the final model; (2) the number of candidate predictor variables affected the number of noise variables that gained entry to the model; (3) the size of the sample was of little practical importance in determining the number of authentic variables contained in the final model; and (4) the population multiple coefficient of determination could be faithfully estimated by adopting a statistic that is adjusted by the total number of candidate predictor variables rather than the number of variables in the final model.