Original Article
Violent extremism: A comparison of approaches to assessing and managing risk
Caroline Logan,
Monica Lloyd,
Corresponding Author
Caroline Logan
Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust & University of Manchester, UK
Correspondence should be addressed to Caroline Logan, Edenfield Centre, Prestwich Hospital, Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust & University of Manchester, Bury New Road, Prestwich, Manchester M25 3BL, UK (email: [email protected]).Search for more papers by this authorCaroline Logan,
Monica Lloyd,
Corresponding Author
Caroline Logan
Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust & University of Manchester, UK
Correspondence should be addressed to Caroline Logan, Edenfield Centre, Prestwich Hospital, Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust & University of Manchester, Bury New Road, Prestwich, Manchester M25 3BL, UK (email: [email protected]).Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
Purpose
The task of assessing and managing risk of violence has evolved considerably in the last 25 years, and the field of violent extremism has the potential to stand on the shoulders of the giants of this time. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify good practice in the risk field and to apply that to the specific area of risk in relation to violent extremism – in order that developments here accord to highest standards of practice achieved so far elsewhere.
Method and Results
We begin by addressing the essential requirement to define the task of assessing and managing the risk of violent extremism – What is its purpose and parameters, who are its practitioners, in what contexts is this activity delivered, and how might any such context both facilitate and hinder the objectives of the task? Next, we map the terrain – What guidance is already available to assist practitioners in their work of understanding and managing the risk of violent extremism, and by what standards may we judge the quality of this and future guidance in the contexts in which is it applied? Finally, we explore options for the development of the field in terms of the empirical basis upon which the risks presented by individuals and the organizations to which they may affiliate are assessed, understood, and managed.
Conclusions
Recommendations are proposed in relation to each of these three areas of concern with a view to supporting the rapid and credible advancement of this growing and vital area of endeavour.
References
- Barnett, G. D., Waleling, H. C., & Howard, P. D. (2010). An examination of the predictive validity of the Risk Matrix 2000 in England and Wales. Sexual Abuse, 22, 443–470. https://doi.org/10.1177/1079063210384274
- Beardsley, N. L., & Beech, A. R. (2013). Applying the violent extremist risk assessment (VERA) to a sample of terrorist case studies. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 5, 4–15. https://doi.org/10.1108/17596591311290713
10.1108/17596591311290713 Google Scholar
- Boeckler, N., Hoffman, J., & Zick, A. (2015). The Frankfurt Airport attack: A case study on the radicalisation of a lone actor terrorist. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management, 2, 153–163. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000045
10.1037/tam0000045 Google Scholar
- Borum, R. (2006). Manual for the structured assessment of violence risk in youth (SAVRY). Odessa, Florida. Retrieved from http://works.bepress.com/randy_borum/2/
- Borum, R. (2015). Assessing risk for terrorism involvement. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management, 2, 63–87. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000043
10.1037/tam0000043 Google Scholar
- Bowie, V., Fisher, B. S., & Cooper, C. (Eds.) (2012). Workplace violence. London, UK: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.1177/1057567708321477
10.4324/9781843926924 Google Scholar
- Bushman, B. J., Newman, K., Calvert, S. L., Downey, G., Dredze, M., Gottfredson, M., Webster, D. W. (2016). Youth violence: What we know and what we need to know. American Psychologist, 71, 17–39. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0039687
- Cook, A. N., Hart, S. D., & Kropp, P. R. (2013). Multi-level guidelines (MLG) for the assessment and management of group-based violence. User Manual. Burnaby, BC: Mental Health, Law, and Policy Institute.
- Daffern, M., & Howells, K. (2009). The function of aggression in personality disordered patients. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 24, 586–600. doi/10.1177/0886260508317178 https://doi.org/10.1177/0886260508317178
- De Ruiter, C., & Augimeri, L. (2013). Making delinquency prevention work with children and adolescents: From risk assessment to effective interventions. In C. Logan & L. Johnstone (Eds.), Managing clinical risk: A guide to effective practice (pp. 199). London, UK: Taylor and Francis.
- De Vogel, V., & deVries Robbé, M. (2013). Working with women: Towards a more gender-sensitive violence risk assessment. In C. Logan & L. Johnstone (Eds.), Managing clinical risk: A guide to effective practice (pp. 224). London, UK: Taylor and Francis.
- Douglas, K. S., Hart, S. D., Webster, C. D., & Belfrage, H. (2013). HCR-20: Assessing risk for violence ( 3rd ed.). Vancouver, BC: Mental Health, Law and Policy Institute, Simon Fraser University.
- Finkel, E. J., & Eckhardt, C. I. (2013). Intimate partner violence. In J. A. Simpson & L. Campbell (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of close relationships (pp. 452–474). New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195398694.013.0020 Google Scholar
- Foellmi, M. C., Rosenfeld, B., & Galietta, M. (2016). Assessing risk for recidivism in individuals convicted of stalking offenses: Predictive validity of the guidelines for stalking assessment and management. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 43, 600–616. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854815610612
- Franzese, R. J., Covey, H. C., & Menard, S. (2016). Youth gangs. Springfield, IL: Charles C. Thomas Publisher.
- Giscard d'Estaing, S. (2017). Engaging women in countering violent extremism: Avoiding instrumentalisation and furthering agency. Gender & Development, 25(1), 103–118. https://doi.org/10.1080/13552074.2017.1279823
10.1080/13552074.2017.1279823 Google Scholar
- Gurr, T. R. (2015). Why men rebel 40th anniversary edition. New York, NY: Routledge.
10.4324/9781315631073 Google Scholar
- Guy, L. S., Douglas, K. S., & Hart, S. D. (2015). Risk assessment and communication. In B. Cutler & P. A. Zapf (Eds.), APA handbook of forensic psychology, Vol. 1. Individual and situational influences in criminal and civil contexts (pp. 35–86). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association. https://doi.org/10.1037/14461-000
10.1037/14461-003 Google Scholar
- Haque, Q., & Webster, C. D. (2013). Structured professional judgement and sequential redirections. Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health, 23, 241–251. https://doi.org/10.102/cbm.1886
- Harris, G. T., & Rice, M. E. (2015). Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk, 3rd ed.. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association. https://doi.org/10.1037/14572-000
10.1037/14572-000 Google Scholar
- Hart, S. D., & Boer, D. P. (2010). Structured professional judgment guidelines for sexual violence risk assessment. In R. Otto & K. D. Douglas (Eds.), Handbook of violence risk assessment (pp. 269–294). New York, NY: Routledge.
- Hart, S. D., Cook, A. N., Pressman, D. E., Strang, S., & Lim, Y. L. (2017). A concurrent evaluation of threat assessment tools for the individual assessment of terrorism. Waterloo, Ontario: Canadian Network for Research on Terrorism, Security, and Society.
- Hart, S. D., & Cooke, D. J. (2013). Another look at the (im-) precision of individual risk estimates made using actuarial risk assessment instruments. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 31, 81–102. https://doi.org/10.1002/bsl.2049
- Hart, S. D., Kropp, P. K., Laws, D. R., Klaver, J., Logan, C., & Watt, K. A. (2003). The risk for sexual violence protocol: Structured professional guidelines for assessing risk of sexual violence. Mental Health, Law and Policy Institute. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
- Hart, S. D., & Logan, C. (2011). Formulation of violence risk using evidence-based assessments: The structured professional judgment approach. In P. Sturmey & M. McMurran (Eds.), Forensic case formulation. Chichester, UK: Wiley-Blackwell.
10.1002/9781119977018.ch4 Google Scholar
- Hart, S. D., Michie, C., & Cooke, D. J. (2007). Precision of actuarial risk assessment instruments: Evaluating the ‘margins of error’ of group versus individual predictions of violence. British Journal of Psychiatry, 190(S49), s60–s65. https://doi.org/10.1192/bjp.190.5.s60
- Hollin, C. R. (2016). The psychology of interpersonal violence. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118598450
10.1002/9781118598450 Google Scholar
- Lloyd, M., & Dean, C. (2015). The development of structured guidelines for assessing risk in extremist offenders. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management, 2, 40–52. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000035
10.1037/tam0000035 Google Scholar
- Logan, C. (2017). Reporting structured professional judgement. In E. Bowen, S. Brown & D. Prescott (Eds.), The forensic psychologist's report writing guide. Chichester, UK: Wiley Blackwell.
10.4324/9781315732152-7 Google Scholar
- C. Logan, & L. Johnstone (Eds.) (2013). Managing clinical risk: A guide to effective practice. London, UK: Routledge.
- McEwan, T., Bateson, S., & Strand, S. (2017). Improving police risk assessment and management of family violence through a collaboration between law enforcement, forensic mental health and academia. Journal of Criminological Research, Policy and Practice, 3, 119–131. https://doi.org/10.1108/JCRPP-01-2017-0004
- McEwan, T. E., Shea, D. E., Daffern, M., MacKenzie, R. D., Ogloff, J. R., & Mullen, P. E. (2016). The reliability and predictive validity of the Stalking Risk Profile. Assessment, 25, 259–276. https://doi.org/10.1177/1073191116653470
- Meehl, P. E. (1996). Clinical versus statistical prediction: A theoretical analysis and a review of the literature. Northvale, NJ: Jason Aronson. (Original work published in 1954.)
- Meloy, J. R., & Gill, P. (2016). The lone-actor terrorist and the TRAP-18. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management, 3, 37–52. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000061
10.1037/tam0000061 Google Scholar
- Meloy, J. R., Hart, S. D., & Hoffmann, J. (2014). Threat assessment and threat management. In J. R. Meloy & J. Hoffmann (Eds.), International handbook of threat assessment (pp. 3–17). New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
- Meloy, J. R., Roshdi, K., Glaz-Ocik, J., & Hoffmann, J. (2015). Investigating the individual terrorist in Europe. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management, 2, 140–152. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000036
10.1037/tam0000036 Google Scholar
- Monahan, J. (2015). The individual risk assessment of terrorism: Recent developments. Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper, 57, 520–534. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2665815
- Monahan, J. (2018). Predictions of violence. In T. Grisso & S. L. Brodsky (Eds.), The roots of modern psychology and law: A narrative history (pp. 143). New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
- Motz, A. (2008). The psychology of female violence: Crimes against the body. London, UK: Taylor & Francis.
10.4324/9780203930915 Google Scholar
- Newton, I. (1676). Letter from Sir Isaac Newton to Robert Hooke. Philadelphia, PA: Historical Society of Pennsylvania. Retrieved from http://digitallibrary.hsp.org/index.php/Detail/Object/Show/object_id/9285
- R. K. Otto, & K. S. Douglas (Eds.) (2011). Handbook of violence risk assessment. New York, NY: Routledge.
10.4324/9780203843666 Google Scholar
- A. Phenix, & H. M. Hoberman (Eds.) (2016). Sexual offending: predisposing antecedents, assessments and management. New York, NY: Springer.
10.1007/978-1-4939-2416-5 Google Scholar
- Pressman, D. E. (2009). Risk assessment decisions for violent political extremism 2009-02. Ottawa, Canada: Public Safety Canada, Government of Canada. Retrieved from https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/2009-02-rdv/2009-02-rdv-eng.pdf.
- Pressman, E., Duits, N., Rinne, T., & Flockton, J. (2016). VERA-2R violent extremism risk assessment version 2 revised: A structured professional judgement approach. Utrecht, The Netherlands: NIFP/DJI.
- Pressman, E. D., & Flockton, J. (2012). Calibrating risk for violent political extremists and terrorists: The VERA-2 structured assessment. British Journal of Forensic Practice, 14, 237–251. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636641211283057
10.1108/14636641211283057 Google Scholar
- Quinsey, V. L., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Cormier, C. A. (1998). The law and public policy: Psychology and the social sciences series. Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
- R. Roesch, & A. N. Cook (Eds.) (2017). Handbook of forensic mental health services. New York, NY: Taylor & Francis.
10.4324/9781315627823 Google Scholar
- Sarma, K. M. (2017). Risk assessment and the prevention of radicalization from nonviolence into terrorism. American Psychologist, 72, 278–288. https://doi.org/10.1037/amp0000121
- Stanley, T., & Guru, S. (2015). Childhood radicalisation risk: An emerging practice issue. Practice, 27, 353–366. https://doi.org/10.1080/09503153.2015.1053858
10.1080/09503153.2015.1053858 Google Scholar
- Storey, J. E., Kropp, P. R., Hart, S. D., Belfrage, H., & Strand, S. (2014). Assessment and management of risk for intimate partner violence by police officers using the brief spousal assault form for the evaluation of risk. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 41, 256–271. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854813503960
- Taylor, J. L., & Thorne, I. (2013). Pathological fire-setting by adults. In C. Logan & L. Johnstone (Eds.), Managing clinical risk: A guide to effective practice (pp. 142). London, UK: Taylor and Francis.
- Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21, 100–113. https://doi.org/10.1080/1068316X.2014.917854
- Webster, C. D., Haque, Q., & Hucker, S. J. (2013). Violence risk-assessment and management: Advances through structured professional judgement and sequential redirections. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118485545
10.1002/9781118485545 Google Scholar
- Webster, C. D., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Cormier, C., & Quinsey, V. L. (1994). The violence prediction scheme: Assessing dangerousness in high risk men. Toronto, CA: University of Toronto Centre of Criminology.
- Webster, S., Kerr, J., & Tompkins, C. (2010). A process evaluation of the structured risk guidance for extremist offenders: Final report. London, UK: National Centre for Social Research. Ministry of Justice Publications: Research and Analysis.
